Tories staring down the barrel of election wipeout (2024)

The Tories are staring down the barrel of an election night drubbing that will reduce the party to a rump of little more than 100 seats.

A trio of mega-polls last night predicted that the party is on course for the worst performance in its 200-year history.

They suggest the July 4 result could see senior ministers including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps lose their seats, potentially alongside Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch, both tipped as potential successors to Rishi Sunak.

One poll, by Savanta, even suggests Mr Sunak could lose his Richmond and North Allerton seat, becoming the first serving PM to be dumped out of the Commons by voters.

But amid the turmoil cabinet minister Michael Gove tried to install a sense of calm as he toured broadcast studios this morning.

He admitted the polls were 'not the cheeriest reading. But the Aberdonian Levelling-Up Secretary, who is not standing at the election, likened the party to the Scotland football team - plucky underdogs who don't give up.

He told Sky Newthis morning:'There are opinion polls, as I've acknowledged and as we both know, that are not great, but it's not the 90th minute, we're not in ''Fergie time'' yet.

'There is still an opportunity for us to make these arguments and as we make these arguments, my experience ... is that when you do talk to voters, outline some of the tax dangers, outline some of Labour's plans for the future, then people do think twice.

'People do recognise that by voting Conservatives you are both ensuring that there is a strong Conservative voice in Parliament, but also you are doing everything you can to prevent a series of tax increases that won't just hit pensioners and first-time buyers, but also will hit the economy in the guts.'

He added: 'I'm a Scotland fan, so you wait until the final whistle.

'Sometimes it looks as though the odds are against you, but you keep on fighting.'

Three MRP polls by YouGov, Savanta and More in Common sparked uproar in Westminster last night.

YouGov suggested that theTories face being reduced to just 108 seats, while Savanta went further to suggest Labour could win more than 500 and leave the Tories with just over 50.

One cabinet minister told The Times: 'Colleagues are understandably concerned about their area but some of these projections are beyond people's wildest nightmares.'

Another said:'The country has made a fundamental decision overall. Anything that is said about tax or anything else is ignored.

'There is no way of sorting this. You don't give up locally. But there is no quick fix to this.'

The YouGov poll also found a slew of current Cabinet ministers would be ousted - includingJeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Mark Harper, Richard Holden, and Alex Chalk.

Meanwhile, the Savanta poll found Suella Braverman would be forced out, alongside Mr Sunak.

Mr Hunt today said the Conservatives are not pretending that the party winning the General Election is 'the most likely outcome' and said his own political future is 'too close to call'.

Speaking at the Times CEO Summit, Mr Hunt also said he believed there had not been 'sustained economic scarring' from Liz Truss's mini-budget.

Despite having represented South West Surrey as MP since 2005, the Chancellor is facing significant pressure from the Liberal Democrats in the area's redrawn constituency of Godalming and Ash.

It comes as some who had their sights set on replacing Mr Sunak, should the Tories be defeated, have now seemingly bowed out of the race.

James Cleverley is reportedly no longer planning to stand in the Tory leadership race following the anticipated election defeat, with allies claiming the home secretary lacked the desire to succeed the current PM.

Cleverley has reportedly told friends he does not wish to put himself forward to replace Mr Sunak.

Meanwhile, Ms Braverman has had key allies predict she might not enter the race due to a lack of support after she was fired as home secretary in November last year.

Allies have claimed if Ms Braverman did decide to run, it would be motivated largely by trying to secure a senior role in the shadow cabinet.

One figure close to the former home secretary told The Times she had 'fallen by the wayside' following her regular public interventions, that colleagues saw less in the long-term interests of the party and more as an act of self-service by Ms Braverman.

Other contenders to replace Mr Sunak include Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, former home secretary Priti Patel and Tom Tugendhat, the security minister.

Yesterday's Savanta poll suggested the Conservatives would be reduced to just 53 seats and Mr Sunak himself would lose his Richmond & Northallerton constituency.

Their study projected an enormous 382-seat majority for Labour, with Sir Keir Starmer's party winning a staggering516 constituencies on July 4.

In a sign of the difficulty in making such projections, Reform was not seen as securing any seats in the Savanta MRP.

The third MRP published last night, conducted by More In Common, found the Tories could end up with just 155 seats after July 4, with Sir Keir coasting into No10 with 406 Labour MPs.

The Lib Dems could emerge victorious in 49 constituencies, according to the research byMore In Common for the News Agents podcast.

Their MRP also found Reform would not get a single seat.

That is despite a separate Survation poll released this afternoon suggesting Mr Farage will record a stunning win in Clacton.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: 'The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in - with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.

'Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now the Conservatives position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.

'Labour on the other hand look set to inherit a historic majority while still remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.'

According to the MRP study from YouGov, Labour are on course for the seond-largest majority since the Second World War.

It also suggested the Tories are headed for a result well below their previous low of 141 seats in 1906 under Arthur Balfour.

In Scotland, the YouGov research showed Labour winning 28 seats, with the SNP falling to just 20 seats and the Tories dropping to five constituencies.

It also found the Conservatives could be reduced to just one seat in Wales, where Labour were shown to be on course to win 26 out of 32 seats.

Sir Keir's party is poised take a record number of seats in London, with Labour set to win 63 out of 75 constituencies in the capital, according to the study.

Earlier, Mr Sunak seized on inflation finally falling back to theBank of England's target as he tries to revive his election fortunes.

However, ministers have been increasingly open about their fears about the party's prospects, with both Mel Stride and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies conceding yesterday that Labour is almost certain to triumph.

Panicking Tories have been urging Mr Sunak to attack Mr Farage head-on, rather than trying to ignore the existential threat Reform poses.

The Brexit champion has admitted he cannot win this election, but insisted he wants to supplant the Tories as the real opposition - and is aiming to be PM by 2029.

The latest official figures showed headline CPI dropping to 2 per cent in May, from 2.3 per cent in April, paving the way for interest rate cuts.

It marks the first time inflation has been at the BoE's goal since July 2021, before the cost-of-living crisis saw inflation shoot up – at one stage hitting levels not seen for 40 years.

Mr Sunak seized on the data to claim that inflation is 'back to normal' and Brits will 'start to feel the benefits'. But he warned that putting Labour in power could put 'progress at risk'.

The reductions will give Threadneedle Street pause for thought as it considers interest rates at the MPC meeting tomorrow.

However, most economists believe rates will be held at 5.25, with the July 4 election regarded as hampering decisions.