Lakers’ new starting lineup makes no sense and must change before it’s too late: Buha (2024)

LOS ANGELES — In an attempt to halt their recent skid, the Los Angeles Lakers made an overcorrection that is now undermining their success.

Amid a four-game losing streak, the Lakers swapped out D’Angelo Russell for Jarred Vanderbilt in a move that coach Darvin Ham rationalized as the team leaning into its defense-first identity. But in turn, the Lakers have created a non-functional starting lineup — Anthony Davis, Vanderbilt, Cam Reddish, Taurean Prince and LeBron James — that fails to support James and Davis.

The new lineup’s limitations were on full display during its two shifts in the Lakers’ Christmas Day matchup with the Boston Celtics, particularly when the Celtics leaped out to a 12-0 lead over the first two and a half minutes of the game. Five minutes later, the Celtics led 30-12. The Lakers eventually made the game competitive and took the lead momentarily early in the third quarter, but ultimately, they couldn’t keep pace with Boston’s machine-like offense and lost, 126-115, on Monday. Los Angeles is now 16-15 and just 2-6 since the In-Season Tournament. The Lakers dropped to 2-1 against the Celtics on Christmas.

“We missed some easy ones,” Davis said. “I missed some easy ones early on. The turnovers and transition kind of hurt us tonight. Against a team like that, the best team in the league, they make you pay for it.”

Spacing has always been an issue in the James-Davis era, but never quite like this. The Lakers are flanking them with two non-shooters (Vanderbilt and Reddish), allowing opponents to pack the paint with often four, if not five, defenders. The Lakers have tried to get creative, playing more four-out, one-in offense rather than their preferred five-out system, using the wings to set flare screens, dribble handoffs and on-ball screens, similar to how the Golden State Warriors exploit defenses ignoring Draymond Green. But nothing has worked.

A Reddish-Vanderbilt starting wing tandem is simply not viable in 2023. Shooting and spacing are too important. Teams can barely get away with one non-shooter, let alone two. Add in Davis’ interior presence and James’ forays to the rim, and the Lakers’ starters are often trying to attack a condensed paint.

Freeze any of the Lakers’ opening possessions Monday, and you’ll see a sea of green jerseys in the paint. Here’s an example: James finds Davis, who’s posting up against Jaylen Brown at the left elbow, early in the shot clock. Boston immediately converges on him, prioritizing helping Brown against Davis over any other potential outcome.

Jrue Holiday leaves James from one pass away. Kristaps Porziņģis ignores Vanderbilt (as several Lakers referenced after the game). Jayson Tatum isn’t concerned with Reddish. Even Derrick White cheats off Prince.

By the time Davis is rising up in the middle of the paint, he’s surrounded by four Celtics defenders. Part of that is Boston’s defense, but a larger part is the Lakers’ surrounding weapons lack any sort of gravity.

What any post up for AD looked like. Again, he can score these (and did a lot tonight!)…but it makes life tough. https://t.co/6Ti70HJnTZ pic.twitter.com/BfAkyeNY2z

— Raj C. (@RajChipalu) December 26, 2023

“We got some really, really, really good looks that we just weren’t able to knock them down,” James said. “They did a good job of trying to use Porziņģis as a roamer and take away the paint, force us to shoot some 3s. And we got some great looks from some of our better 3-point shooters. We just weren’t able to knock them down.”

Vanderbilt hasn’t made a 3-pointer in his 10 games this season. Reddish is shooting 25.9 percent on 3s in December and 30.1 percent overall. Neither player has gravity. Davis has shot the 3 much better recently (50.0 percent on 1.6 attempts per game in December), but Davis 3s are more of a luxury when the offense is flowing, not a game-plan necessity.

Through 18 minutes over two games, the starting lineup has a 105.0 offensive rating and 125.0 defensive rating, an abysmal minus-20.0 net rating. Extrapolated over the course of a full season, all three marks would be league-worst marks. Against the Celtics, the Lakers were outscored by 10 points in the eight minutes the starters played together. (The Lakers were plus-1 with the lineup in 10 minutes vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder.)

Lakers' new starting lineup in 18 minutes:
– 105.0 offensive rating (worse than 30th-ranked Spurs)
– 125.0 defensive rating (worse than 30th-ranked Wizards)
– -20.0 net rating (worse than 30th-ranked Spurs)
– 40.0 eFG%
– 46.8 TS%

Minuscule sample size but it's been a disaster.

— Jovan Buha (@jovanbuha) December 26, 2023

Eighteen minutes is a miniscule sample size, of course. But the lineup doesn’t make sense — in theory or in practice. Modern contenders need multiple two-way players around their stars. There’s a difference between prioritizing defense and punting on offense; the Lakers are doing the latter.

And it’s not just the 3-point shooting, either. With this lineup, the Lakers don’t have another credible ballhandler or playmaker next to James. The offense runs entirely through James and Davis and is dependent on them to be superheroes through limited spacing.

Davis said he likes the new lineup, though he noted the team is still figuring out the offensive rhythm with the group.

“I think, with the lineup change, just trying to find ways to be effective on the offensive end,” Davis said. “We know that teams are probably not gonna try to guard Vando, so just using him in actions. Like tonight they put Porziņģis on him, and (we had) him set ball screens and keeping him in actions. But I think overall, just trying to figure it out.”

When asked if a Reddish-Vanderbilt wing pairing is viable together, Ham said the key is playing faster and trying to use the space provided by defenses against them.

“I just think not allowing it to stagnate us,” Ham said. “If they’re trying to play off, Cam’s got to step up shooting with confidence or eat up that space on the drive. Collapse the defense once he touches the paint and try to find open man. Same thing for Vando. The ball hits him, you just can’t hold it and be confused. You just gotta move on to the next thing, whether it’s a pitch ahead and hit to its teammates, (dribble handoff), or shot goes off, go hunt down off an offensive rebound, get us some extra possessions.

“Just playing fast, man. Trying to be in rhythm, making quick decisions and doing things with force.”

Davis echoed a similar sentiment.

“I think we are really good in transition, and that helps kickstart our offense,” Davis said. “But when we’re not defending, it’s tough to get to our bread and butter, which is that transition. And we play off that. Even with that lineup change, we look really good defensively. We just gotta be able to get some stops. Especially early on, starting games like that. Granted, they made some shots. But we have to buckle down and let that fuel our transition.”

For the group to justify being worth playing together, much less beginning games together, they have to be elite defensively — basically, league-leading good. So far, that hasn’t happened. And part of it is because the offense has been so bad, with a trickle-down effect to Los Angeles’ transition defense.

It certainly didn’t help that James had one of his worst games of the season after having one of his best in Saturday’s win over Oklahoma City. He scored just 16 points on 5-of-14 shooting against Boston, adding nine rebounds and eight assists. He was clearly shaken up after a collision with Brown at the 4:02 mark of the second quarter.

“My knee is a little sore right now, and the best thing, finally, the schedule is kind of in our favor with two days before we have to play again,” James said. “So, just a freak play right there between me and Jaylen Brown. I’m happy I was able to walk off on my own power, but definitely a little sore right now.”

Outside of the starting group, the Lakers have played reasonably well the past two games (and really, the past three), otherwise holding up against the Thunder and Celtics, two of the very best teams in the league. They’ve hit 40-plus percent on 3s in back-to-back games. Rui Hachimura is looking closer to his 2022-23 self. Austin Reaves has stabilized the offense off the bench. Prince has shot the ball incredibly well. Davis is on a tear.

Still, James pointed to the Lakers’ shaky health as a reason it remains difficult to compare them to the league’s elite. (Only Gabe Vincent, who will now miss the next six to eight weeks due to arthroscopic knee surgery, was inactive on Monday.)

“I don’t think we’re healthy right now,” James said. “I don’t think we’re where we want to be to compete against the top teams until we continue to get better and better, continue to work our habits. And for us, we’re still trying to figure our situation out as far as how we want to continue to attack each game. But, we’ll be better.”

Ham suggested before the Celtics game that he isn’t committed to his new starting lineup or rotation, but the tone of his postgame comments suggested the lineup is here to stay. He continues to preach confidence with it despite the on-floor optics.

That brings up a larger point that the conversation around the starting lineup. The Lakers’ recent 1-2 record against three of the best teams in the NBA — the Minnesota Timberwolves, Thunder and Celtics — was a reminder of the current distance between them and the league’s top teams. Ham had said the Celtics game, in particular, was a barometer game. And with that perspective, the Lakers clearly remain in a lower weight class — subpar starting lineup or not — with the current version of their roster.

“We can’t skip the details,” said Ham, referencing transition defense, rebounding and turnovers. “We can’t get bored with the details.”

James agreed about the importance of nailing those while also seemingly implying that the Lakers don’t have the same margin for error as other more talented teams.

“When you don’t have much room for error, you have to be detail-oriented,” James said. “You have to understand each possession. And when you’re able to execute that to as close to perfection (as possible), then you’re going to give yourself a better chance to be successful.”

To his point, the Lakers can’t afford to decrease their margin for error by playing a lineup with 1990s-level spacing and collective offensive skill. With Russell seeming to fall out of favor (he’s played just 18 minutes per game over the past two games), Reaves is an obvious candidate to return to the starting lineup for either Vanderbilt or Reddish, providing a better balance with his shooting, scoring, ballhandling and playmaking. (If healthy, Vincent would’ve been a notable candidate as well.) Ham’s reluctance to play Reaves — LA’s clear-cut third-best player by a significant margin — more minutes is bizarre. Since moving to the bench on Nov. 10, Reaves has logged more than 30 minutes just six times in 22 games (he played 34 minutes as a starter in the team’s Dec. 15 loss to San Antonio, when Davis, Russell and Reddish sat out with injuries).

The Lakers host the 7-20 Charlotte Hornets on Thursday after a much-needed two-day break. The starters will likely look much better against the league’s fifth-worst team record-wise. But that’s not who Los Angeles is measuring itself against.

After the lineup looked as bad as it sounded in theory over this holiday weekend, it’s clear the Lakers will have further lineup changes to make sooner than later.

(Photo of Jrue Holiday stripping Anthony Davis: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Getty Images)